NYCPHP Meetup

[Hans Cathcart]

On Thursday 09 May 2002 09:52 am, Hans Zaunere wrote:
> That said, it's important to consider the future.  In my
> opinion, the economy as a whole will start to pick up again by fall,

Having been one of the lucky ones to have found a job in the last 4 months 
after looking for 3 months in NYC and unemployed for 6 months, I have to say 
that moving to NYC last Dec. would have been a very bad decision if it hadn't 
been for living with parents rent-free.  Even now though, I'm earning less, 
working harder than I was before.

I'm a little less optimistic about the economy turning around by fall.  IBM 
is about to lay off 10% of its workforce.

It's important to consider the factors.

3 strikes against NYC.

Spring 2001 - Internet bubble bursts, Investment in Internet companies that 
hire Web Application developers drops to the floor.

Spring 2001 - Companies switch from a "we value a company based on how it can 
grow" to "we value a company based on how much profit it makes."

Fall 2001 - Terrorist attacks depress a struggling economy.  NYC hit-hardest!

All in all, it's not only the economy that's depressed, it's the general 
outlook that most Americans have.  There is still fear here in NYC, you don't 
see it on the street, and you don't talk about it, but it's definitely here.  
The Empire State building is seeing _A LOT_ of vacancies.

I personally, don't see the web developer community going back to salaries 
like we saw in 1999 and 2000 ever.  People with deep technical skills in 
Databases and Application development will make a come back.  Good designers 
will be OK.  But, people who just know how to code HTML and use Dreamweaver 
are a dime a dozen now.

What is happening now is that the Internet business is being incorporated 
into regular business.  Internet Design firms are merging, being bought by 
Established Design firms.  Internet Advertising firms are merging, being 
bought by Established Advertising firms. ... and so on....
the reason it's interesting to be in the PHP community, in my opinion, is 
that since the tools are free, costs a low, and while Internet budgets are 
being cut when the tools are free, more money can be set aside for salaries.  
I think smaller companies are staying lean with PHP.

Hans Cathcart
hans at cathcart.org
917-681-7990