NYCPHP Meetup

[Kristina Anderson]

Ed,

Hi again.  Let me try to clarify what I was trying to say.  I'm 
enjoying this stimulating discussion on a lovely spring day when, let's 
face it, it's hard to keep focused on work.

By saying that things can be proven that "ain't so" ... I was referring 
not specifically to CS/IT related things but to so many cases 
of "research" that are designed to support a contention that may not be 
true but that certain people have an interest in "proving"...which may 
not be relevant to what we are discussing, granted.  (As an example, 
many studies that "proved" during the 40s and 50s that smoking and 
radiation were not bad for your health!)  By which I meant to point out 
that the methodology used to "prove" something is what is important, 
that that methodology needs to be correct and accurate, or we 
haven't "proven" anything -- GIGO in other words.  

And I completely 100% agree that "search engine results" are not an 
accurate measurement of language/platform popularity (and agree that 
the TIOBE indexes, if based on that alone, are not accurate).  It seems 
to me that the only way to measure this is to get some kind of 
adequately sized sampling of what companies are actually using for 
their development.

--Kristina



> Kristina Anderson wrote:
> > Ed, I agree, it would be great if we could find some methodology 
that 
> > could prove beyond a shadow of a doubt on an empirical basis that 
PHP 
> > is a more popular platform than Cold Fusion.  I can't adequately 
defend 
> > my contention to your exacting standards at the present moment, 
because 
> > you're right, I don't have the data.  But I believe that the data 
is 
> > gatherable and that my theory is valid. 
> I do too. But I would like it quantified as well.
> > So anyone have any ideas how to do that, links, information, 
empirical 
> > studies, etc. etc & etc ... bring 'em on.
> >
> > We could do an empirical analysis of job postings on 10 or so 
general 
> > tech job boards over a time period of a year...?
> >   
> That sounds interesting.
> > PS Ed, your own link to the TIOBE website showed that they listed 
Cold 
> > Fusion at the bottom of the popularity grid...and PHP was in the 
top 
> > half.  But you're saying that you have "problems with their 
> > methodology", OK.  But you can have problems with any methodology 
or  
> > means of proof, and that in and of itself is an emotional 
> > response...based on your beliefs and temperament...and btw there's 
> > nothing wrong with that! :=]
> >
> >   
> I believe this to be a straw man.
> I never said I had "problems with their methodology". I said "which i 
> think are erroneous", and logically so.
> I posted a link to the 2 illogical assumptions that support the TIOBE 
> indexes as being fallacious.
> I will clearly list them here, as it seems you didn't follow that 
link 
> (poor scholarship):
> # that the number of search engine hits for the phrase “/foo/ 
programming” 
> is proportional to the “popularity” of that language.
> # that the proportionality /is the same for different languages/.
> It is therefore logically unsound to deduce that the TIOBE indexes 
are 
> correct in a truly accurate esteem.
> All they are graphing reduces to search engine results, and nothing 
more.
> 
> > I mean let's face it, people have "proved beyond doubt" all sorts 
of 
> > things which flat out ain't so, right?
> >
> > -- Kristina
> >   
> I'm not sure what you are looking to express with that (perhaps 
> rhetorical?) question.
> 
> <X>Out of curiosity<X>
> <XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX>
> What would be an example of something "proved beyond doubt" 
that "flat 
> out ain't so"?
> (Please refrain from listing some historic event of ignorance, such 
as 
> meat becoming maggots or the Earth being flat. We are discussing a 
> comparison of actual market holding betwixt two modern programming 
> languages. Feel free to respond off list.)
> <XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX>
> 
> In fact, there is not a clearly quantified amount of conclusive 
> information to accurately deduce that PHP (or any other language) 
holds 
> this or that particular portion of the 'market'. Therefore, to 
propose 
> we find a 'reason' for PHP holding the majority of the 'market 
share', 
> is pure nonsense, as we do not know that PHP holds such a portion. We 
> may as well propose to find a reason for which Coldfusion holds the 
> largest share of the market, or Python, or Flex, or Java, or COBOL...
> 
> Perhaps this thread may be a catalyst to develop a better means of 
> accurately surveying language utilization in a granular fashion.
> 
> -Ed
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